Thom Rainer, dean of the Billy Graham School of Evangelism and Missions at Southern Baptist Seminary, and an astute observer of the church growth scene, believes that 50,000 American churches will close by the year 2010.
In an article which originally appeared in his The Rainer Report newsletter, he noted, "Thousands of churches are on the precipice of closing. The conventional wisdom was that churches were tenaciously stubborn, and could keep going for years. But those churches were led by the Builder generation, those born before 1946. The churchgoing builders attended churches out of loyalty and tradition. They would often remain loyal to a church despite deteriorating quality and attendance.
"But Boomers, Busters/Gen Xers, and Bridgers — those born between 1977 and 1994 — have no such loyalties. They see no need to remain with a church that exists out of tradition and with little care for the quality of the ministries. . . . The fading of the Builder generation indicates the death of one out of eight churches in America today."
The big question remains: what kind of churches will close their doors over the coming decade? Most likely, they will be churches for which maintaining the status quo is the major priority.
Wow! Now how to get beyond maintaining the status quo...
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